Thursday, May 28, 2009

Paterson Financial Services: The dollar is doomed

From Paterson Financial Services: The dollar is doomed
There are three things that make the dollar fall.
1. US trade deficits increase
2. US interest rates fall relative to others
3. US inflation higher than others

Wednesday, May 27, 2009

Pension Pulse: Liquidity Drowning the Meaning of Inflation?

Pension Pulse: Liquidity Drowning the Meaning of Inflation?

What we will have going forward is not Weimar Republic-type price hyperinflation, but a financial profit inflation in which zombie financial institutions turn nominally profitable in a collapsing economy. The danger is that this unearned nominal financial profit is mistaken as a sign of economic recovery, inducing the public to invest what remaining wealth they still hold, only to lose more of it at the next market meltdown, which will come when the profit bubble bursts.

Their solution then is to make the working poor pay for the pain of inflation by giving the rich a bigger share of the monetized wealth created via inflation, so that the loss of purchasing power from inflation is mostly borne by the low-wage working poor and not by the owners of capital, the monetary value of which is protected from inflation through low wages.

Low wages even in boom times have landed the world in its current sorry state of overcapacity masked by unsustainable demand created by a debt bubble that finally imploded in July 2007. The whole world is now producing goods and services made by low-wage workers who cannot afford to buy what they make except by taking on debt on which they eventually will default because their low income cannot service it.

Only reform toward full employment with rising wages will save this severely impaired economy. How can that be done? Simple. Make the cost of wage increases deductible from corporate income tax and make the savings from layoffs taxable as corporate income.

Friday, May 22, 2009

Weimar Hyperinflation

Web of Debt - TIME TO GET OUT THE WHEELBARROWS? ANOTHER LOOK AT THE WEIMAR HYPERINFLATION
The massive hyperinflation suffered by Weimar Germany in 1923 was caused by speculation by foreign investors, who would bet on the mark’s decreasing value by selling it short. Short selling of the German mark was made possible because private banks made massive amounts of currency available for borrowing. Can something like it happen again?

Tuesday, May 19, 2009

US health officials troubled by new flu pattern

US health officials troubled by new flu pattern | Reuters
CDC officials say around 100,000 people are likely infected with the new flu strain in the United States and Schuchat said the 5,123 confirmed and probable cases and six deaths in the United States were "the tip of the iceberg."

Tuesday, May 12, 2009

Antitrust For Banks?

Antitrust For Banks? Ask Carl Shapiro « The Baseline Scenario
The Department of Justice seems to thinking, at least in principle, about potential antitrust action in and around banking. Assistant Attorney General Christine Varney spoke about this yesterday, “I have to ask if too big to fail is a failure of antitrust enforcement.”

Sunday, May 10, 2009

America owes the world 13 trillion Dollars

Jim Rogers already few months ago was denouncing the sad situation of the American economy, get out of the dollar, buy commodities invest in China buy gold etc.

Friday, May 8, 2009

Who is minding the store?

23 Goldman subsiduaries domiciled in tax havens

23 Goldman subsiduaries domiciled in tax havens ~ Goldman Sachs Information, Comments, Opinions and Facts: "List of Goldman Sachs subsidiaries domiciled in tax havens"

Senator Ted Kaufman on naked short selling












Naked short selling - redefining systemic risk

Naked short selling - redefining systemic risk from Judd Bagley on Vimeo.


This is the newest video from Deep Capture Productions, examining the attack on Sedona Corp, and applying the insights gained from it to the broader market — including the possibility that the federal government has recently been spending billions of dollars to take the liability of accumulated failed trades off the books of broker-dealers.

Rachel Maddow Show: Naomi Klein on the Bank Bailouts


Rachel Maddow talks to Naomi Klein about the bank bailouts, the results of the stress tests and how bailing out these banks is a massive transfer of wealth from the public sector into private hands. They talk about how the crisis has not been solved but instead the burden has been moved to those that can least afford it.

Sunday, May 3, 2009

Size of Derivatives Bubble = $190K Per Person on Planet

The Size of Derivatives Bubble = $190K Per Person on Planet: "According to various distinguished sources including the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) in Basel, Switzerland -- the central bankers' bank -- the amount of outstanding derivatives worldwide as of December 2007 crossed USD 1.144 Quadrillion"

Dendreon’s Cancer Researchers vs. Hedge Funds & The Bootlick Journalists

The blog Dendreon’s Cancer Researchers vs. Hedge Funds & The Bootlick Journalists (or, What’s 18 Million Fails Among Friends?) Deep Capture: exposing the crime of naked short selling demonstrates the harm caused by illegal naked short selling against a company working to develop a cure against cancer. After presenting the facts it ends by saying:
Given that, one may then ask of those journalists who defend the right of hedge funds to destroy firms they wish to destroy, that is to say, of DowJones’ Carol Remond and Karen Richardson, of Fortune Magazine’s Roddy Boyd and Bethany McLean (now at Vanity Fair), of New York Times’ Floyd Norris and Joe Nocera, of Herb Greenberg hiding behind vapid emails and Dave Kansas hiding under his desk, of NY Post/Portfolio Magazine’s Dan “Crusher” Colarusso and CNBC’s Jim Cramer the Crook: Do you get it now? Do you understand why illegal stock manipulation is wrong, and can impose costs on society it was your duty as journalists to explore? You purveyors of reportorial Velveeta, you lazy and captured, half-educated and dim-witted, snarky, insufferable, conformist and indolent pseudo-intellectual lickspittles, do you get it now? You are sell-out journalists who grovelled to your sources, missed the story of your careers, and in the eyes of an increasing fraction of the public, rank just below pedophile priests.

Friday, May 1, 2009

Quotes from March 2009

Mike Taibbi, Rolling Stone

The mistake most people make in looking at the financial crisis is thinking of it in terms of money, a habit that might lead you to look at the unfolding mess as a huge bonus-killing downer for the Wall Street class. But if you look at it in purely Machiavellian terms, what you see is a colossal power grab that threatens to turn the federal government into a kind of giant Enron — a huge, impenetrable black box filled with self-dealing insiders whose scheme is the securing of individual profits at the expense of an ocean of unwitting involuntary shareholders, previously known as taxpayers.

Congressman Ron Paul

When a company makes a profit, it is a signal that it is taking resources and increasing their value while controlling costs. When a company operates at a loss, it is a signal that it is decreasing the value of its resources or letting out-of-control costs outstrip any value it has created. A company operating at a loss is therefore an engine of wealth destruction. Bankruptcies are a net positive for the economy because more productive competitors are rewarded by opportunities to buy up remaining assets at bargain prices to strengthen their operations. In an economy that allows this kind of growth and change, any jobs lost by bankruptcy are soon replaced by new ones as the most efficiently managed businesses gain access to more assets and expand. Bankruptcy was the stimulus that we needed in the case of AIG. More bankruptcies would clean out malinvested resources and enable economic growth again. AIG, by losing money and maneuvering their operations to the brink of bankruptcy, was telling us that they were inefficient. So what did we do? We forced the taxpayer to assume the losses, and now we are supposed to be shocked that it is not working out. Had AIG gone bankrupt, it would have been impossible to hand out these bonuses. The taxpayer would have been fleeced for $170 billion less last year. Had they gone bankrupt, the world would not have come to an end, it would just continue on with one less engine of wealth destruction.A recession should be a time of strengthening and regrouping for an economy. But as long as the government insists on maintaining the status quo by propping up failed institutions, we will continue to dig a bigger hole for ourselves.

Marc Faber, Gloom, Boom & Doom Report

Even in the 19th century, under the gold standard, from time-to-time investment manias and bubbles developed in railroads and in canals and in real estate, just to name a few. Under a fixed monetary, or gold, standard, where the quantity of money cannot be increased indefinitely, there is a natural limit to the scale of the crisis. Usually when there’s a boom in one sector of the economy, you have some kind of deflation somewhere else; that was also the case in the 1970s. We had a boom in commodities, but bond prices collapsed. What Mr. Greenspan and Mr. Bernanke have achieved is historically quite unique. They have managed to create a bubble in everything, everywhere in the world: in real estate, equities, commodities, art, worthless collectibles; even bond prices continued to rise as interest rates fell due to loose monetary policy. Since 2007 and 2008, everything has collapsed. But government bond prices continue to rise, and went ballistic between November 2008 and December 2008, when 10- and 30-year Treasury yields collapsed. So my view would be that this was the last bubble they managed to inflate. From here on, the government bond market will fall. In other worlds, the trend will be for interest rates to actually go up.

The Quiet Coup

Read full article by Simon Johnson, Atlantic Monthly (on newstands now):

The crash has laid bare many unpleasant truths about the United States. One of the most alarming, says a former chief economist of the International Monetary Fund, is that the finance industry has effectively captured our government-a state of affairs that more typically describes emerging markets, and is at the center of many emerging-market crises. If the IMF's staff could speak freely about the U.S., it would tell us what it tells all countries in this situation: recovery will fail unless we break the financial oligarchy that is blocking essential reform. And if we are to prevent a true depression, we're running out of time.

But there's a deeper and more disturbing similarity: elite business interests-financiers, in the case of the U.S.-played a central role in creating the crisis, making ever-larger gambles, with the implicit backing of the government, until the inevitable collapse. More alarming, they are now using their influence to prevent precisely the sorts of reforms that are needed, and fast, to pull the economy out of its nosedive. The government seems helpless, or unwilling, to act against them.

Donald Luskin: Gold and the Upside-Down Bell Curve

From Donald Luskin, Trend Macrolytics:

The U.S. dollar is the world's reserve currency. No other central bank has that status. So when anyone else in the world wants to save, as opposed to invest, you buy Treasury bills. It's just what you and I would do if we wanted riskless balances: we'd buy Treasury bills.

But what does the Treasury buy? How does the Treasury save? That subtle logic paradox: Who cuts the barber's hair? The Treasury has no capacity to save. It lacks the physical mechanism. It could invest, it could go out and buy an S&P 500 index fund, but that's investing, and it's not eager to invest, because at the moment, at least the culture is that the federal government doesn't want to be an equity owner in private enterprise.

So with all this money being thrown at the Treasury from around the world, there's really no choice but to spend it, so an $800 billion stimulus bill like we just rammed through in a rush to judgment a couple months ago is entirely feasible. In fact it was kind of a rational response to the world just throwing money at us, and so that's the setup.

But here's the thing. If this were a rational thing for the Treasury to do, then you could say it was rational for unqualified homeowners to accept subprime mortgages three years ago to buy inflated tract homes in Stockton, California, on the theory that three years from now when the mortgage reset, they could just walk away. So what the U.S. is doing with its Treasury debt is in essence the world's largest teaser mortgage.

We're funding most of this with debt that's with an average maturity of around three years. So three years from now, if the world credit crisis is healed and you don't have the world throwing money at you anymore, then this is going to reset and we're going to have to roll this debt. We're going to have to refinance. These three-year notes are going to mature, and what will interest rates be then, when people aren't desperate to own Treasury bills because they're afraid of owning anything else?

So this long detour to tell this story has really been about inflation. There's going to be a run-up to this; it won't wait until three years, it will be anticipated. So at the year-and-a-half point, when people start talking about it and it starts to be part of the dominant narrative, rates will start to go up, and the Fed's going to say, "Oh hell, just when recovery started to set in!" And the fact that recovery is setting in is what's causing these rates to go up.

So just when things are starting to look good, these rates will start looking a little scary, and the dollar will be falling in value, things will get kind of crazy again. But the Fed will say, "We can't let this nascent recovery be killed by a 5% 10-year rate! That was the kind of rate we had just when the wheels came off starting in 2007. We can't let that happen again!" So it's going to be time for the Fed to buy another $300 billion worth of Treasuries and another $600 billion and another $900 billion.

Don't Trust Earnings New Accounting Rules, Stress Test is a SHAM!

Shadow Banking, Now With 100% More Ninjas


Shadow banking from Marketplace on Vimeo.